|
Marin Market Blog
|
Coldwell Banker Northern California
Greenbrae Office
|
Below are Marin Market Statistics put together by Fred Anylan. Fred is a Broker Associate with Coldwell Banker in Greenbrae. These numbers are collected by Fred, but used and respected by many Realtors in Marin County. All of the previous year's reports are archived and available upon request. Please, feel free to contact me for city by city details.
August 17th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Marin County real estate sales figures for the last two weeks show housing inventory for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's declining very slightly for the period but basically stable. Units sold remain ahead of last year at this time, but largely on the strength of the first part of the year when buyers were racing to beat the deadline for the Federal tax credits. In recent weeks, we have seen the gains of the earlier part of the year erode steadily as unit sales failed to keep up with the pace of the same period last year. In the two weeks ended on August 17, SFR sales slipped from being up 30.4% for the year to only 26.9%. Condo sales for the period were relatively strong and actually managed to hang on to the same 7.1% gain they showed as of last report.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate reporting firm, in an August 19 article, noted that in July, the Bay Area housing market experienced a 22.8% decline in year-over-year sales, the largest drop since May of 2008 when sales fell 23.1% from the previous year. The article attributed this to the expiration of the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit and the lack of availability of Jumbo and Adjustable Rate Mortgages as well as a crisis in consumer confidence, especially regarding prospects for economic recovery and worries about jobs. In a bright spot for many of us here in Marin, the article stated:
"In July, sales in higher-end neighborhoods represented a greater portion of overall transactions than a year ago. Last month 39.8 percent of the sales were for $500,000 or more, roughly even with 40.1 percent in June but up from 36.7 percent last year."
In addition, a table included with the article shows Marin County's July housing sales down only 15.5% from a year ago with median price actually up 10%, holding up better than most other areas in the region.
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100819.aspx
With the Labor Day weekend staring us in the face, listing activity is low. There is a lot of talk about new listings coming on the market just after the Holiday. This represents the traditional post-Labor Day "bump" that we have come to expect here in Marin County. The question in everyone's minds is how strong it will be. Remains to be seen, but will tell us a lot about where the market is headed. Much discussion among real estate agents about the lack of "quality inventory" on the market. Many stories about buyers who just can't find what they want. Buyers and agents hoping to find that perfect home from the new crop of listings they are expecting. We will know soon.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all for a happy and safe Holiday Weekend,
Fred
August 9th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week shows 9 of 13 cities and towns it follows lost ground compared to last month. Two, Ross and Novato remained roughly the same, while only Sausalito and Fairfax showed increases.
Nationally, the jobless rate remains stuck at 9.5%, representing over 14 million out-of-work individuals. The unemployment percentage would be considerably higher if it counted "discouraged" workers who have given up looking. See August 7 SF Chronicle article from Bloomberg News for more details.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/08/07/BUP31EPRL8.DTL
Friday's disappointing jobs report from the Department of Labor threw a bit of cold water on the Dow Jones which was still up for the week, mostly based on Monday's 200+ point rise. Some interesting commentary on Aug 6 market talk
http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/
Overall percentage in contract mostly down for both SFR's and Condo's at all price points, with one exception, and that was the $1million-$1.99million segment in both markets. Numbers of units involved were so small though that it is probably just a statistical anomaly.
Numbers of homes/units sold YTD still above the comparable figures for this time last year, but have been decelerating for a number of weeks now. YTD SFR sales as of 8/3 were 1089 compared to 835 for the same period last year, or a 30.4% increase (two weeks ago we were trying to hang on to a 34% increase). Also since our last report, 65 SFR's have sold in Marin County (July 20 to August 3) while last year, 72 homes sold during the period. Condo sales similar with 285 units sold YTD as of 8/3, or a 7.1% increase over last year's 266. At last report the increase was 10.2%.
According to CB MarketQuest, the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 101.9% for SFR's at the end of July, nearly double that of last July (56.2%), but Days on Market (DOM) are up to 94 in July from 89 in June and Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) also up from 5.5 in June to 6.5 for July. Condo's also showing strong sales activity with Accepted Offers at 81.8% of new listings compared to last July's 50.8% but DOM increased from 110 to 135 and MSI up sharply from 6.1 to 8.7.
Local offices still have lots of open escrows but the pace has slowed. Optimists still hoping for the traditional post-summer-vacation "bump" in buyer activity and predicting substantial new inventory making an appearance after Labor Day. Others feel inventory will remain at relatively low levels, giving those who do test the market a better shot at success.
As the fortune teller said--- "more will be revealed"
Until then, best wishes to all,
July 25th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
July 11th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Better minds than ours are struggling to understand what is going on with U.S. and global economic conditions and predict the future . Sometimes feels a bit like financial fortune-telling!
On June 27, Princeton Professor of economics, Nobel prize-winner, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman penned an article titled "The Third Depression" in which he speculated that we are currently entering an extended economic trough. This, he says, is due in part to misguided attempts by legislators and officials to begin to balance budgets to avoid accumulating more debt. According to Krugman, they should instead be pursuing a much more expansive economic policy to avoid further economic contraction he says is an inevitable destination on their current course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
On July 10, Nelson Schwartz, another New York Times Columnist, wrote a column for the paper titled "Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery". According to the article, major Wall Street brokerages have added about 2,000 jobs since February in anticipation of a coming economic recovery. Schwartz postulates that the recent financial successes of banks will lead the U.S. out of recession/depression and into recovery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?th&emc=th
Reality is probably that the economy is at a tipping point and can go either way depending on events and policies in the next few months. It would seem that taking money out of the system to reduce deficits may not necessarily be beneficial at this particular point in time. We will see.
Meanwhile, Wall Street had a pretty good week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best week since July of 2009, climbing about 5%. Still a long way from its former peak, but slowly heading in the right direction though still volatile and changing directions regularly. Mortgage rates still at historical lows but buyers must be well-qualified with good income, assets, and credit scores.
"But what actually happened here in Marin County?" you may be asking, drumming your fingers on the counter. So, Ok, the local facts as we see them---------
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage-in-contract of 5 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows was up, and 6 down as of July 1. Greenbrae showed no change at slightly over 31% in contract. Corte Madera, at 35.29%, still the leader even though down substantially from last month's stellar performance of 47.73% in contract. Belvedere holding the low spot on the totem pole at only 5% in contract. Remember, many of these markets are relatively small, and a swing of a few units can have a dramatic impact on the percentage in contract number.
Single Family Homes (SFR) inventory down from 1308 to 1269 since last report. Percentage in contract down just slightly from 25.08% to 24.35% overall. Homes under $1million at 33.58% in contract, down less than half a point from last report. Homes in the $1million and up segments all showing reductions as follows:
$1million-$1.999 million down from 16.02% to 15.18%
$2million-$2.999 million down from 19,83% to 17.36%
$3million and up down from 8.40% to 7.76%
This in spite of anecdotes about high-end properties starting to move. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens next!
Average sold price of SFR's YTD at $1,054,594 vs $972,521 last year at this time. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93 vs. last year's 108 at the same time. 935 SFR's had sold as of July 6, 34% more than the 697 sold as of the same date in 2009. This percentage increase has been decelerating for a number of weeks now, since the Federal mortgage tax credits ended.
Good new is that according to CB MarketQuest, SFR accepted offers in June were 30.1% of inventory, the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. The June ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 91.8%, exceeded only (in 24 months) by December's figure of 116.3%.
Marin County Condominium inventory down slightly to 352 from 368 at last report. Overall percentage in contract also down from 33.42% to 32.10%, while condo's under $1million (all but 19 of the listings) also down from 35.16% to 33.63%. Average sold price YTD at $400,476 vs $365,807 this time last year, and DOM up slightly from 114 to 117 since June of '09. YTD condo units sold as of July 6 at 252 vs. '09 figure of 231, or up 9.1%. This also shows continued deceleration from the rushing-to-get-the-tax-break peak. Condo accepted offers as a percentage of inventory at 29.5% at the end of June, the highest in the 24 month period covered by the CB MarketQuest report. Accepted offers as a percentage of new listings, at 89% were 3rd highest in the 24 month period, behind November and December of '09. Important to remember that increasing sales prices may be an indication of the specific units sold as much as of overall price levels---- a phenomenon called "market mix".
Local offices still busy, with good numbers of open escrows, even though many buyers and sellers are taking their a summer vacation break. Traditionally, the local real estate business cools off a bit this time of year, then gets another bounce after Labor Day. Anyone's guess what will happen this year-----
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
June 26th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones down just under 3% for the week on continuing investor jitters about jobs, the economy, the Euro---- and now another concern has surfaced. Seems that "M3", a measure of the money supply that inclues a broad range of bank accounts, cash, and other assets, has been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Depression years, raising fears of deflation. Read the full article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
San Diego-based real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, in a report dated June 17 made the following observations about the Northern California real estate market:
* Bay Area housing units sold up 11% in May compared to the same period last year.
* Units sold in May up 18% from April. This compares to a historical April/May increase of 6.9%
* Sales of higher-priced homes increasing and the low end slowing, most likely due to tax credits and greater availability of jumbo loans helping the upper end and reduced pace of foreclosures moderating lower-priced sales activity
full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100617.aspx
Here in Marin, sales activity continues to be mixed. Agents reporting some open houses extremely well-attended, while others have few visitors. Varies by town, neighborhood, price range, and specific homes. Local offices busy, with lots of new open escrows, but many deals at significant discounts from listing prices. Multiple offers more common on well-priced homes but even so, sales prices not going very far, if at all over list price in most cases. Buyers' and Sellers' best asset in this market is a professional REALTOR experienced in their specific market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Active inventory up very slightly but mostly stable at 1308 units compared to 1294 at last report. Percentage in contract down at 25.08% overall, a balanced market. The under-$1million segment also down at 33.97%--- was 40% five weeks ago. $1-2million segment down as well, while the $2-3million and $3million and up segments both show modest increases. Year-to-date (YTD) units sold (June 22) still up, with 845 SFR's sold compared to 602, up 40.3% from the same period time last year--- deceleration of recent weeks continues with this drop from last report's 42%. Average Days on Market (DOM) at 93, an improvement from 110 last year at this time.
Marin County Condo's active inventory at 368 and percentage in contract at 33.42%. Both figures relatively stable with small increases from the June 8 level of 365 units and 32.88% in contract. Average DOM at 117, up 3 days from last year's 114 at this time. YTD units sold at 229, up 11.17% from the 206 units sold by this time in '09 and down from last report's 13%.
Local real estate recovery definitely seems to be in progress but still sensitive to volatility of broader economic conditions. Buyers continue to be careful, looking for value. Sellers and their agents need to be realistic, sharp, and ready to respond to the demands of the market. Pricing, preparation, presentation, market awareness, marketing ability, and willingness to respond to local market conditions are keys to success.
more next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
June 13th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Bumpy week for the U.S. economy. Jobs report showed only 41,000 new real jobs
after subtracting temporary hirings of Census Workers. Stock market reacted with extreme volatility to this and continuing concerns over the possibility that troubles with the Euro may spread to other countries. In the background, the BP disaster acting as a drag on people's spirits as they wonder how bad it will get before it is under control and what it will take to clean it up.
Included in this week's report are the recently added monthly Condo and Single Family Market Action Reports. If you haven't seen them yet, take a look. Also, the monthly City-by-City report showing the percentage in contract down in ten of thirteen listed Marin County cities and towns, up in two, and one, San Rafael with no change.
Marin real estate market sending mixed signals
Single Family Residences (SFR) percentage in contract down in all categories except for a very slight increase (about half a percentage point) in the $2-$3million dollar segment. Market segment under $1million still doing well at 35% in contract but continues to be quite price sensitive. One Central Marin home last week received 3 offers and still did not get to list price. Buyers looking for value. Average sold price up a bit from this time last year at $1,059,749 vs. $948,599, and days on market (DOM) at 94, down from111 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 757 as of June 8, vs. last year's 531, an increase of 42%. Keep in mind, the figure was 46% two weeks ago, so actually represents a slight decline. Having said that, CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 100% of new listings for May. Report also shows a 5.6 month supply of inventory for SFR's, the lowest since December, when many sellers typically take their homes off the market for the Holidays. Active SFR inventory at 1,053 units at the end of May vs. last year's 1,267.
Condominiums percentage in contract down in all categories too. The under- $1million segment, representing all but a handfull of units listed for sale, hanging in there at 34.59% in contract. Little if any room for sellers to push price in this market either. Average sold price also up a bit from this time last year at $405,528 vs. $364,733. Days on market (DOM) at 117, up just a bit from 114 at the same time in '09. YTD units sold at 214 as of June 8, vs. last year's 189, an increase of 13%. This also represents a slight decline from the 13.3% figure in our last report so market may be losing a bit of momentum here too. CB MarketQuest shows accepted offers at 91.4 of new listings for May and a 5.7 month supply of inventory for Condo's, again, the best figures since December. Active Condo inventory at 285 units at the end of May vs. last year's 328.
(Note: discrepancy between figures from MLS and MarketQuest due to the difference in the way the two organizations count active listings. Figures consistent within reports)
Local real estate offices quite active with a steady stream of new open escrows. Agents and managers optimistic. In spite of all the ups and downs, the market seems to be improving. Most deals still being negotiated carefully between buyers and sellers. Buyers not throwing money at deals even in multiple offer situations. They are not inclined to do so, and the banks won't let them. Appraisal guidelines continue to be strict. Buyers are buying but again, they are buying value. Buyers and sellers alike benefit from the experience and market knowledge of local REALTORS, familiar with their specific market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
June 1st, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
May 17th, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
May 3rd, 2010________________________________________
Hello Everyone,
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Hello Everyone,
April 18, 2010
La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, in an April 15 article headlined
"Bay Area March home sales and median price rise above prior month and ‘09"
noted that although Bay Area median sales prices have risen for 6 straight months, the $380,000 figure for March was still more than 42% below the high of $665K reached in the summer of 2007. The article called the increase a "statistical quirk", citing a decreasing percentage of foreclosure sales and increasing sales in medium to high-priced neighborhoods but noting that the upper end is still constrained by a "dysfunctional" jumbo loan market and a lack of the adjustable rate mortgages upon which upper-end sales have historically depended. The article also noted over 17% of Bay Area homes being purchased by absentee buyers "mostly investors", and that all-cash sales accounted for almost 25% of Bay Area home sales in March. Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100415.aspx
Single Family Residence (SFR) inventory at 1114 vs. 1032 two weeks ago, up about 10% and percentage in contract down a bit, at 29.9% overall vs 31% at last report. SFR's under $1million still leading the market with 37.5% of listed homes in contract, down just a bit from 40% two weeks ago and significantly lower than the early- February level of 46%, but still strong. YTD SFR units sold up 55% on April 13 compared to '09's 257 at the same time, continuing their recent red-hot trend. Average sales price at $1,021,919 vs. $927,629 at the same time last year.
Condo inventory up only 20 units since last report, from 325 to 345 and percentage in contract at 40% on April 13, compared to 36.7% two weeks ago. YTD units sold at 120 vs. 111 at the same time last year, an increase of about 8%. Average sold price at $409,234 vs. 2009's $326,182 at the same time.
Marin County real estate market active, with lots of buyers and their agents out and about. Open houses well-attended and well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed homes selling at a brisk pace. Reality is that the market is still very price-sensitive with even multiple-offer situations often not going very far over asking price. Pushing the pricing envelope usually results in homes that sit on the market and either do not sell or sell for less than they would have if priced correctly from the start and then only after a long period of marketing and multiple price reductions. Experienced professional REALTORS familiar with your local area are an invaluable source of information in this market. They often see many homes each week and track the results, providing an important frame of reference.
More next time.
Hello Everyone,
April 04, 2010
Business Week, in an article dated April 3, noted signs of economic recovery and an improving job market and cited a rising stock market as evidence
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a fifth straight week, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to their highest closes in 18 months, amid fresh signs the economy is recovering."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-03/u-s-stocks-rise-for-fifth-straight-week-as-economy-improves.html
Here in Marin County, the real estate market continues to improve. Inventory is low, activity is high, and many agents are feeling upbeat about the prospects for the remainder of the year. It feels as though our market turned the corner several months ago and is slowly headed in a more balanced direction.
City-by-City report out this week shows 7 of the cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract since last month, 5 decreased, and 1 remained unchanged.
Fairfax leads the pack with 14 of 28 listed properties in contract as of 31 March, a blistering 50%! Close behind is Novato, with 46+% in contract, and Larkspur running a close 3rd at 43.3%. Sausalito holding up the bottom rung of the Marin County real estate ladder again this month at only 10.26% in contract. Buyers please note this special opportunity regarding Sausalito real estate. Odds are it will not last.
Single Family Residences (SFR) continue to make a strong showing, with 329 units sold YTD as of March 30, a whopping 120 unit increase over the same period last year, or 57%! There were 298 accepted offers on SFR's in March, the largest number in the 24 month period covered by the most recent MarketQuest report. Average sold price YTD at $997,290 vs. $964,243 last year at the same time, a slight increase, but average days on market (DOM) dropped from 117 to 110, a good sign.
Condo's doing well too, with 100 units sold YTD by March 30, compared to the year-ago figure of 91, a 9.8% increase. There were 94 accepted offers on Condo's in March, with the next closest month out of the last 24 coming in at only 61 offers. Average sold price up too at $409,649 compared to last year's YTD figure of $323,097, but DOM increased from 108 last year to 134 in the 1st Quarter of 2010.
Big question regarding recent big numbers is how much of the action is a result of buyers rushing to beat the deadline for the Federal Tax Credit and whether the rest of the year will suffer as a result.
Please take a look at the monthly Market Action Reports attached here for additional interesting information.
More next time-----.
Until then, best wishes to all
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, Ca-based MDA DataQuick, in a March 18 article, noted that Bay Area home sales were up from a month ago, but down slightly from February of '09. The Marin IJ used some of that information for their own article the same day, but with a local emphasis. For a good discussion of Bay Area real estate prospects for the coming months, see the two articles using these links.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100318.aspx
http://www.marinij.com/marinrealestate/ci_14701247
Here in Marin, Single Family Residence (SFR) Year To Date sales (YTD) were 259 units as of March 16. This compares to 161 on the same date a year ago, or a very impressive 60% increase! Average list price was $1,069,335 compared to $904,674 a year ago while average sales price was $1,003,205 compared to $846,197 in '09.
Condominium sales also up from the year-ago YTD figure of 78 to 84 on March 16, a 6% increase. Not dramatic, but headed in the right direction. Condo average list price YTD (March 16) was $423,407 vs. $302,542 at the same time last year. The average YTD sold price of $412,718 was substantially ahead of the '09 YTD figure of $295,504.
Sellers need to be aware that even though sales and sales prices are up, the local market is extremely sensitive to price. Part of the increase in prices is the result of fewer low-priced REO transactions rather than rising values. Correct pricing is critical, as are preparation, presentation, marketing. Pricing adjustments should be made promptly based on market feedback. No offers? No showings? No previews by agents? Low turnout at open houses? Take a close look at the factors mentioned above--- especially price. Then act quickly! It is critical to have the advice of a professional real estate agent experienced in the local market---and important to make use of the information that is offered!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
3.7.2010
Hello Everyone,
City by City report out this week shows 9 of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered by the report experienced a decline in percentage in contract, and 4 increased. Amount of increase/decrease mostly incremental. Fairfax out in front with 50% of listings in contract as of March 2. Novato close behind at 46.13%, followed by Kentfield at 45.83% and San Anselmo at 43.33%. Just looking at these numbers, it would appear that these locations are experiencing a raging sellers’ market. Obviously, sales are doing well, but markets still quite price-sensitive. Even multiple-offer situations often not going much over asking-price, if at all. Exceptions are prime properties and properties that have been aggressively priced specifically to try to attract multiple offers.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory up slightly to 836 units, with 266 in contract, or 31.82%. Compares to 33.84% in contract at last report. Homes under $1million at 42.89% in contract, again, slightly less than the 46.35% at last report. Surprise here is that homes over $1million experienced an increase in percentage in contract in all price ranges. This segment has been sluggish or stalled for quite some time due to difficulty in getting jumbo loans. Unclear if we are finally seeing some movement in this area or it is only a blip. Bears watching. Average list price at $1,093,660 compares to $881,873 at this time last year and average sold price YTD at $1,024,143 vs. $832,040 at the same time in ’09. YTD units sold at 206 on March 2 vs. the year-earlier figure of 135, or an impressive 52% increase! There were 225 accepted offers on SFR’s in February compared to 74 last year and 102 in February of ’08. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings in February was 101.8% vs. 29.5% in Feb ’09 and 35.9% in Feb ’08. Something is definitely going on!
Condo’s showed a slight increase in inventory to 295 from 285 at last report. 112 , or 37.97% were in contract on March 2. 111 of these were in the under-$1million range, leaving only one of the over-$1million dollar units in contract. That means that 40.36% of all condo listings under $1million were in contract, and only 5% of those in the pricier segments. Condo YTD units sold at 68 on March 2, compared to 64 at the same time last year, a 6.2% increase. But list prices and sold prices up substantially at $431,491 and $418,922 respectively compared to last March’s $308,214 and $300,869. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings at 90.1% at the end of February, compared to 30.9% in Feb of ’09 and 29.6% in ’08. Condo’s not as hot as they were a couple of months ago, but still doing ok when price is right..
Stock market, economy, Buyers and Sellers all still sensitive to every little piece of financial news but local real estate market continues to improve.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Hello Everyone,
February 21st, 2010
The Federal Reserve, in an unexpected move, and one some think is premature, increased the Discount Rate Friday by .25%. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to appear before the House and Senate in the coming week to explain the policy. Speculation is that with the jobless rate still in the area of 10% there will not be much further tightening in the near future, but that remains to be seen. Interesting article at: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j_JKlWJuvyH9o86cq2-UrJdVTAZA
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in a February 18 article headlined "Bay Area home sales fall; median price up from last year, down from December" notes the number of Bay Area homes sold in January was below January of 2009, even though the median price was up. Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100218.aspx
Marin County, however, bucking the trend, with 144 Single Family Residences (SFR) sold to Feb. 16, as opposed to 98 during the same perior in '09, a 46.9% increase. Condo units sold up as well, though less spectacular at 50 in 2010 vs. 47 in '09 or 6.3% more. Average sold prices up too, with SFR avg. sold price for the period at $1,037,231 vs. $846,678 in '09 and condo avg. sold price at $400,424 for 2010 vs. $287,949 for the same '09 dates. Caution is advised in interpreting these results. With a small sample size this early in the year, "market mix" can have a greater effect on the figures. Still, the numbers are at least interesting and bear watching.
Inventory still low, with 792 SFR's being actively marketed on MLS as of 2.16. This compares to 952 units at the end of February, '09. On February 16, 33.8% of active SFR units were in contract in all price ranges. The under-$1million price range still incredibly hot, with 46.4% of listed units in contract while at the upper end, $3million-plus properties still slow movers at only 7.25% in contract-- a tremendous opportunity for upper-end buyers.
Condominium inventory at 285 units on 2.16.2010 vs. 312 at the end of Feb. '09. Over 39% of these were in contract. Condo's under $1million, the vast majority of the market, at 41.6% in contract.
Early results encouraging. Economy still iffy. Buyers still jittery. I will go out on a limb and predict a brighter 2010 for real estate. We shall see.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
February 22nd, 2010
Hello Everyone,
Lots of reports this week. The most-asked-for report, the Annual Marin Sales Comparison (with year-over-year percentage changes) is first on the list. This report is compiled from MLS figures, which just became available during the past week. All listed cities and towns experienced a decrease in prices from 2008 levels. As usual, both PDF and Excel formats are provided.
The monthly City-by-City Report shows percentage in contract up in Belvedere, Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Greenbrae. Kentfield stayed even at a very encouraging 45% of listed homes in contract. All other areas were down from last month's levels though a number of them still showed very strong sales activity. CB MarketQuest shows ratio of accepted offers to inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at 30.7%, the highest in the 25 month period covered by the report. The figure for condominiums was 39.5%, also the highest in the reporting period.
Monthly Market Action Reports for both Single Family Residences and Condo's are also attached, showing market trends for the County.
Inventory increased modestly, with 753 SFR's and 270 Condo units listed for sale. Overall, 34.26% of SFR's, and 38.89% of condo's listed on MLS were in contract as of February 2. The under-$1million segment fared even better with 46.26% of SFR's and 41.11% of condo's in contract on 2/2. SFR YTD units sold at 93, vs. 09's 74, a 25.67% increase while condo sales for the period were 36 compared to 35 in '09.
Upper end of the market still sluggish with only about 16% of SFR's between $2 and$3million in contract and the over-$3million segment with only about 8.5% in contract. Out of 270 listed condo units, only 17 were above the $1million level, and only one of those in contract on February 2.
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service attributed the slow-motion sales of upper-end homes to:
"buyer reticence, a difficult mortgage market and several years of price drops that tugged the value of many homes below the million-dollar threshold" , but cited Ross as one of the "communities where virtually all home sales were in the million-dollar category". Full text of the article available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/HighEndSales/MDCA100204.aspx
On the national scene, stocks jittery this week on fears of foreign debt. Concern that European economies, especially Spain, Portugal, Greece could drag the entire region back into recession through markets' exposure to credit default swaps, significantly delaying European, U.S. and global recovery. Outcome and effect upon U.S. and local housing markets unknown at this time. These types of concerns likely to be with us for a while.
Meanwhile, Marin market activity up significantly over last year. Buyers and investors active and taking advantage of low prices and historically low interest rates. Many prospective homeowners conscious of approaching deadline for tax credits and eager to get properties into contract.
Lots of great deals available, particularly in the upper end of the market.
More next time.
Hello Everyone,
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
|